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jj009 Offline

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23.09.2019 13:04
ut big-money closers that we can learn from GMs over the past year: Clubs arent paying more for their closers, but rich clubs ar Antworten

?Aroldis Chapman will be the highest paid closer in history. One interesting thing about that sentence is that we even say it.Its not an observation youd expect to read about a shortstop, or a center fielder, or a first baseman, because superstar first basemen just get paid as superstars, unqualified. But closers are so weird. They break all the rules.? Every other star player plays as often as possible on a regular schedule. Closers are intentionally held back for moments. Its as if teams benched their fourth-best hitter every day so he could pinch hit.? Most other star players have stable positions. Catchers are catchers from the time theyre drafted until, quite often, the day they retire. Center fielders and starting pitchers are center fielders and starting pitchers until somebody decides they cant handle it anymore. But closers hover around the role, sometimes in, sometimes out, defined simultaneously by what theyre unable to do (pitch in the first inning) and what theyre too good to do (pitch in the eighth).? Meanwhile, other star players fill a non-negotiable need. Every team must have a shortstop, a catcher, and only a handful of people alive can play those positions -- or even fake it. But no team has to have a player who self-identifies as a closer, and scores of nonclosers in bullpens, the minor leagues or on the fringes of starting rotations can fake it. Meanwhile, some teams carry two or three or four players who might pitch as well as the average closer in any given year, while almost no team would ever carry four players capable of starting every day at shortstop. For closers, all notions of positional scarcity and gluts are ever-changing and negotiable.? The way the closer is used changes dramatically in the postseason, both in how often and for how long. This is only a little bit true for starting pitchers, and not true at all for hitters. A team can all but guarantee that in the biggest moment of the postseason, its closer can be on the mound -- that the entire series, the entire season, can rest on the strength of one acquisition. This cant be said of a hitter, no matter how good, because the hitter bats only when the lineup tells him to.? The way the closer as a species is used is also subject to re-evaluation by the sports decision-makers. There is no promise that the next generations closers will be used in the same way as the current generation -- or that theyll even be used to close. Shortstops, meanwhile, have pretty much always been shortstops.For all these reasons, closer salaries have always existed in a different economy than the rest of the leagues salaries. And for all these reasons, the decisions GMs make with relievers tell us something about what they value and how they intend to see the game played. Economic indicators might be fuzzy and they might mislead, but they can point us toward some truths about the role. So, then, back to Chapman. A month ago, the highest salary a reliever had ever earned was $15 million per season (Mariano Rivera), and the largest contract ever given to a reliever was for four years and $50 million (to Jonathan Papelbon). Both marks have been surpassed three times in the past month, by Chapman (five years, $17.2 million per) as well as Mark Melancon (four years, $62 million from the Giants) and Kenley Jansen (five years, $80 million from the Dodgers). Records have been broken.These records reflect choices made by humans in an economic system that is presumably rational. What have we learned?Hypothesis: GMs are paying more for closers than ever. And I know why. When they write the book about reliever-ace usage in the 21st century, the chapter on 2016 will probably start with Clevelands Andrew Miller, the relief ace who redefined (or, at least, re-redefined) the role by entering games in the fifth or sixth innings to get his team out of tight spots. But the chapter should include a lengthy section on another deadline acquisition: the Cubs trade for Aroldis Chapman.When Chicago added Chapman, it was seven games in front of its nearest division rival. Its playoff odds at Baseball Prospectus were 99 percent, a reflection not just of that substantial lead but of the strength of the Cubs roster. Chapman would have practically no effect on the division race, or on the Cubs chances of reaching the postseason. And yet the Cubs gave up a huge haul for him: A top-50 (at least) prospect in shortstop Gleyber Torres, a recent top-100 prospect in outfielder Billy McKinney and a couple throw-ins. By FanGraphs prospect projections, the Cubs traded something on the order of 10 future wins for a one-inning reliever whose value to them was going to be concentrated in a single month of pitching: October 2016.Add to that the fact that the Cubs seemed to already have a great closer. The day the trade was made, the incumbent Hector Rondon had a 1.95 ERA for the year, and in the previous three seasons that ERA was 2.01. Chapmans ERAs in the same time periods: 2.01 and 1.84. The difference between them, over a three-year stretch, had been roughly one earned run every 53 innings. Chapman could be expected to pitch around 10-15 innings if the Cubs went all the way to the World Series. This amounted to an extraordinary valuation for an elite closer.And now we get three closers signing for a lot of years and a lot of money.On the most basic level, teams need more relievers than ever. In 2016, a record 15,893 innings were handled by the leagues bullpens, compared to 14,665 innings per season from 2010 through 2015. Thats 41 more innings per team per season. Unless the world starts producing more good relievers, the demand for good relievers goes up with that new mandate.The change is even more exaggerated in October, which has become, according to FiveThirtyEights Rob Arthur, reliever season. In 2016, starting pitchers averaged 5.11 innings per start in the postseason, down from 5.51 innings just the year before. Lest you think this is due to starters getting knocked out earlier, leaving work that any mop-up man or fifth starter could handle, its the opposite: Managers are pulling their starters earlier mostly to protect leads. In postseason games that teams won in 2016 -- games where top relievers are more likely to be leaned on -- starters went just 5.52 innings, down from 6.26 innings the year before. To win a game in October takes more relievers than ever.And increasingly it takes more work from the closer specifically. Last years two World Series teams got nearly 15 innings apiece from their closers, which is the second-most in the 22 postseasons since wild-card play began. (And this ignores how hard the Indians rode fireman Miller.) Adjusting for the number of games their teams played, it still ranks second, at about 0.88 innings per game played. The 2015 closers were also worked hard, as their 0.81 innings per game were the most since 2004. In the decade before 2015, closers on World Series teams worked just 0.66 innings per postseason game.Thats certainly not a huge difference -- an extra inning or two in the biggest moments of the year -- but it chips away at one of the arguments against paying closers huge contracts, that they dont work often enough to justify a tenth of a teams payroll (or more). And in a league where a third of teams make the postseason, a GMs decisions can skew more than ever toward building a roster for the postseason.So, sure, theyre paying more for relievers than ever before. Why wouldnt they?Antithesis: GMs are not paying more for relievers than ever before. Theyre not.Look, if I tell you that Aroldis Chapmans 2017 salary will break a record set by Mariano Rivera in 2008, the fun fact isnt Chapman. Its Rivera! A 2017 salary should be higher than a 2008 salary, and the only news is that it took a decade for somebody to finally catch Mo.Consider that in 2008 the average player salary across major league baseball was $2.9 million. By 2015, it was up to $4.0 million, and at that rate of inflation it should be around $4.3 million or so this year. Chapman will get paid as much as four average major leaguers, while Rivera was paid more than five.In fact, if we chart the top closer contracts signed each winter and the leagues average salary, closer inflation has held pretty steady with leaguewide inflation as a whole. ESPN Stats & Information found the top three reliever contracts by average annual value, signed in each offseason since 1990. We narrowed the list to pitchers who signed for three years or longer -- not all of whom were closers, but most of whom were. We charted their annual salaries as a ratio with the league-average salary.Rivera stands out, as he ought to, as the only reliever to earn five times the average player salary. But otherwise, theres a steady history of players getting paid similarly to Chapman, Jansen and Melancon. You can see eight relievers whose dots form a band across the middle of the chart, above 3.75x but below 4.5x: John Wetteland, Randy Myers, Rafael Soriano, Francisco Rodriguez, Roberto Hernandez, Billy Wagner, Francisco Cordero and Papelbon. All will be paid more, relative to their era, than Jansen will be.More striking is the paucity of such contracts in the years leading up to this offseason. In the four winters since Papelbon signed his four-year, $50 million contract, only three pitchers have signed contracts guaranteeing more even $30 million -- Darren ODay, Andrew Miller and David Robertson. Itd be easy to conclude that GMs had mostly moved away from massive closer contracts.Thats also a bit misleading. The best relievers of the past half-decade have been young and under team control, such as?Craig Kimbrel, Dellin Betances, Zach Britton, Cody Allen, Wade Davis, Chapman and Jansen, or they have been notably old and limited to shorter deals, such as Koji Uehara and eventually Mariano Rivera were. They didnt hit free agency, which helps explain why Papelbons record wasnt broken. Andrew Miller was probably the best reliever to be a free agent since Papelbon, but his track record of dominance was short, and his career saves total was one.But David Robertson hit free agency with a resume very similar to Papelbons. In their three years before free agency:However, Robertson signed for less money, three years later. Papelbons annual salary was 3.9 times the league-average salary, while Robertons was just 2.9 times.Thats notable, and it happened only two years ago. Its still a fresh data point demonstrating how GMs have pulled back from giving massive contracts to relievers, or else demonstrating the limitations of drawing broad economic conclusions based on a tiny number of isolated contracts. Maybe the latter.Synthesis: Well, what do you know, its a little bit of both.If theres anything to draw from the contracts Melancon and Jansen got, its that the spending trough of 2012-2015 was just a blip, that GMs didnt give up spending big money for closers after Papelbon. The Dodgers are a rich team that needed a closer, so they spent a lot on one. The Giants are a relatively rich team that just lost a division title under an avalanche of blown saves, so they spent a lot on one. Neither team spent that much, considering how good Jansen and Melancon are and considering what comparable closers have always been paid.(If Jansen getting a fifth year -- something only B.J. Ryan?previously got as a post-1990 closer -- is interesting, it might easily be explained by his young age or by his unique repertoire or by it being with the Dodgers.)But theres a lot to take away from Chapmans deal. Not because of the dollars or the years, but because the Yankees already have one of the half-dozen best relievers in baseball. Clubs have always been happy to have two closer-quality relievers in their bullpen, but its only until very recently that theyve been willing to pay for it.In the past 14 months, weve seen the Dodgers nearly trade for Chapman, despite having Jansen already; the Yankees trade for Chapman, despite having Betances and Miller already; the Red Sox trade for Kimbrel, despite having Uehara already; the Cubs trade for Chapman, despite having Rondon already; the Indians trade for Miller, despite having Allen already; and now the Yankees sign Chapman, for the biggest contract in history (sort of!), despite having Betances already. Chapmans primary value wont be protecting ninth-inning leads -- Betances would have done that -- but freeing Betances up to protect seventh-inning leads, eighth-inning leads, and maybe even copy Andrew Miller by protecting fifth- and sixth-inning leads. It takes two closers to try that.This is probably the most useful thing about big-money closers that we can learn from GMs over the past year: Clubs arent paying more for their closers, but rich clubs are paying more to have multiple closers. Closers are not just about the ninth inning anymore, and they might not be for a long time. Wholesale MLB Jerseys . Burris threw two TD passes, including a key 15-yard fourth-quarter strike to Bakari Grant that effectively countered a Toronto comeback bid and led Hamilton to a 33-19 victory. MLB Jerseys From China ., for the next three years with the signings on Monday of Daryl Townsend and Michael Carter. https://www.mlbjerseys2020.com/ .Y. -- Sabres defenceman Tyler Myers had no intention of changing his hard-hitting style before taking part in a disciplinary hearing for his illegal check to New Jersey forward Dainius Zubrus head. Stitched Nike MLB Jerseys . -- Cam Newton pranced into the end zone, placed his hands over his chest and did his familiar Superman pose. MLB Jerseys 2020 Online .C. -- Rodney Hood connected from all over the court while freshman Jabari Parker was busy swatting shots and scoring in transition. Jobe Watson is expected to make unwanted AFL history next month when he becomes the first Brownlow Medallist to be stripped of the honour.The AFL Commission will meet on November 15 to consider the thorny question of what to do about Watsons 2012 Brownlow.The issue was put on hold while Watson and 33 other Essendon players made a last-ditch appeal in Switzerland against their doping convictions.The Swiss Federal Tribunal announced on Tuesday night (AEDT) that it had ruled against the appeal, clearing the way for the Commission hearing.Watsons Brownlow is at stake because his doping offence occurred during the 2012 season.There is widespread speculation Watson will lose his Brownlow, in the same way that athletes convicted of doping offences have lost Olympic medals.It also emerged on Wednesday that the AFL had invited Hawthorn star Sam Mitchell and Richmond captain Trent Cotchin - the joint runners-up in the 2012 Brownlow - to make submissions about the issue.But the two players declined the offer.He was given the opportunity, if he wanted to, but no, he has no interest in presenting, Mitchells manager Peter Lenton told AFL Trade Radio.Lenton admitted to unease about Mitchell potentially being awarded his first Brownlow, given the circumstances.It would be a really strange way to get it and an uncomfortable way to receive it, Lenton said.But if thats the way its determined, I suppose you have to go by the umpires decision.Another potential solution for the Commission is to strip Watson of the medaal, but not declare a 2012 winner.ddddddddddddThe Tour de France took that approach when stripping drug cheat Lance Armstrong of his record seven titles, although a key reason was that so many of his rivals in that era were also known to have doped.Meanwhile, ASADA chief executive Ben McDevitt fired a shot at the Essendon players after their failed Swiss appeal.ASADA noted that the players had agreed to the terms of the CAS arbitration hearing.In January, CAS ruled in favour of a WADA appeal and that meant the players were found guilty of doping.You cannot agree to the rules and then expect them to change if you dont like the outcome, McDevitt said on Wednesday in a statement.McDevitt added he was pleased the anti-doping process related to the long-running Essendon supplements debacle was over.I am proud of ASADAs persistence in pursuing this case until the truth was revealed, he said.Dyson Heppell, who could be Essendons captain, said the Swiss verdict came as no surprise.Like Watson and 15 other players still on AFL lists, Heppell had to sit out this season because of the doping ban.I prepared myself mentally, probably 12 months ago, so for me it doesnt really change too much, Heppell said.We were never getting our 2016 back anyway.Its a real bit of closure, I think.In May, AFL chief executive Gillon McLachlan said the league was dreading the Watson Brownlow decision. 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