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09.12.2018 12:54
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Handcuffs. Who needs em?In all truthfulness, no fantasy owner.Thats why I found it so stunning to hear, in a recent mock draft, that oh-so-common comment bandied about this preseason: Oh, as a LeVeon Bell owner, I absolutely have to also take DeAngelo Williams, probably by the fifth round.Those who press such an owner for an explanation often get a similar response: Williams (179 fantasy points) outscored Bell (83) last season, made more starts (10 to Bells six) and, as the Pittsburgh Steelers starter for Weeks 1 through 3 of 2016 while Bell is suspended, guarantees said owner 16 games of production. Said owner wants to protect his or her investment in the Steelers backfield, because the role of Steelers running back is sure to contend for fantasy footballs leading score at the position.Theyre all fair comments, but there is unfortunately no such thing as a guarantee with an NFL running back. And to use one seasons successful outcome as justification for the following years strategy is dangerous. Dangerous enough, in fact, to be one of the quickest ways to waste draft-day resources, if youre using it as a way of inflating said players draft price tag.What you might not have known: Williams was one of only nine handcuff picks from the past five seasons who, among the five most popular such handcuffs by year (a grand total of 25, from 2011-15), outscored the player to whom he was being handcuffed. In fact, he is one of only two -- Willis McGahee in 2011 was the other -- to outscore the player to whom he was handcuffed by more than 75 fantasy points in the given year.Worse yet is the fantasy owner who tries to extend the Bell-Williams justification to players from other backfields, as if any starting running back selected also demands the selection of his primary backup. Unfortunately, the 2015 season provided a cruel statement on that: In two of the five backfields that were most commonly handcuffed, the teams leader in fantasy points among running backs was neither the selected starter nor the presumed handcuff. From the Baltimore Ravens, Javorius Allen (87) outscored both Justin Forsett (83) and Lorenzo Taliaferro (12); and from the Kansas City Chiefs, Charcandrick West (102) outscored both Jamaal Charles (75) and Knile Davis (11), and Spencer Ware (72) also outscored presumed handcuff Davis. Meanwhile, from the San Francisco 49ers, Shaun Draughn (44) outscored presumed handcuff Reggie Bush (3).Bear in mind, too, that Knile Davis was fantasy footballs second-most-popular handcuff to Williams in 2015 -- recognizing that Williams also had two known starts to begin last season, as Bell was serving a suspension then, too. This makes him as compelling an argument against handcuffing from within the same campaign as the player most commonly used to bolster said case. The Chiefs indeed provided productive fantasy fill-ins following Charles injury; we merely didnt know at the time that West would be the the benefactor, then Ware after West subsequently got hurt.Crunching the overall numbers during the past five seasons, heres a quick comparison between what a drafted starter and his perceived handcuff provided in those years. These represent only the five most commonly handcuffed backfields, with the starter required to have an ADP within the top 50 picks. Starts come from my Consistency Rating data, and represent top-25 weekly scores at the running back position:For those who consider the handcuffs stat line a productive year, youre not completely off base. The point isnt to entirely devalue Williams; its to not overprice him based upon a connection to Bell. Williams indeed has a healthy draft-day value -- hes my No. 30 running back and No. 73 overall player, after all -- but thats mostly because hes providing his drafting owner three known starts in a productive offense.Frankly, if Williams is going sooner than that, Ill take the player with a clearer path to more than three potential starts for his team. After all, the point of building roster depth is to maximize your number of available weekly fantasy starts. Give me the chance at 10 starts over the three-and-only-three starts every time.Lets look at handcuff production from another angle: Comparable picks available at similar stages in the draft. At least from the past five seasons data, it appears that the breaking point -- the stage at which handcuffing makes the most sense from a value standpoint -- comes around the No. 100 overall pick, and no sooner.Heres a quick comparison of what these 25 handcuffs provided compared to what other running backs selected in those rounds did, separated into top-100 and 101-160 overall picks:The sample sizes arent equal, but the evidence is nevertheless compelling that selecting a clear backup, even behind a risky starter, is a dicey strategy sooner than the final rounds of a standard-league draft. Combining these numbers, incidentally, shows that nonhandcuffs -- these include committee members, passing-down backs and/or less popular handcuffs who graced the final picks of the draft in those years -- were every bit as productive as handcuffs. They averaged 81.1 fantasy points to the handcuffs 83.1, and averaged 4.2 starts to the handcuffs 3.6.In short, maximize your number of available opportunities from all backfields, as opposed to consolidating your resources within two or three backfields. Spread your risk. Pick LeGarrette Blount, not Derrick Henry. Select Arian Foster, not Charles Sims.But if it gets to Round 14 or 15, on your Adrian Peterson-led squad, and Jerick McKinnon remains available, by all means feel free to handcuff.Just dont force it any sooner than that. Cheap NCAA Jerseys Authentic .C. at the helm of the top team in the Eastern Conference. His tenure as the GM in Vancouver was all too brief. Though he led the Canucks to what was then a franchise record-shattering campaign in just his second season, Nonis was gone and replaced one year later. Wholesale College Jerseys .5 million, one-year contract on Friday. Hawkins, who turns 41 in December, will compete with Rex Brothers for the closers role at spring training. http://www.cheapncaajerseysbywholesale.com/ . Now that hes hitting streaking teammates with pin-point passes for easy layups, Love is asserting himself as one of the true superstars in the league. College Jerseys Cheap . Radwanska, making her debut in the Seoul tournament, hit eight aces in a match that lasted 1 hour, 4 minutes at Olympic Park tennis stadium. "It was definitely a very good match -- I was playing really good tennis," Radwanska said. Cheap College Football Jerseys . -- Charlie Graham stopped 67 shots as the Belleville Bulls edged the visiting Guelph Storm 6-5 on Saturday in Ontario Hockey League action.Former Liverpool manager Brendan Rodgers says the clubs owners must decide whether they are in football to make money or to win trophies. The Northern Irishmans assertion comes less than 24 hours after a significant number of Liverpool supporters staged a 77th-minute walk out of the home match with Sunderland in protest at next seasons ticket prices.Rodgers was sacked by Fenway Sports Group (FSG) in October after more than three years in charge at Liverpool and was replaced by Jurgen Klopp, who he believes may be struggling with the clubs transfer committee system. Liverpools American ownership are said to favour the signings of players under the age of 24 instead of spending large amounts of money on established players.Rodgers claims he had no problem working under the constraints of Liverpools transfer committee system, but feels FSG have to clarify their aims for the football club. Rodgers feels Jurgen Klopp may be struggling to adapt to the transfer committee Well I think it is probably a little difficult at the moment. I didnt have any problem working under one [a transfer committee], Rodgers told beIN Sports.The club needs to look at it and decide whether they want a business model or a winnning model.ddddddddddddA winning model would mean trying to get the best possible players that you can, at whatever age they are, it doesnt matter. John W Henry (right), founder and owner of FSG, acquired Liverpool in 2010 Some clubs will go into work and have that in mind. Others will think it is about buying a player, developing and improving them and then selling them on for a much greater fee, as opposed to getting the best possible player, irrelevant of his age, in order to win.This is the way it is going, some clubs operate with the model of football being a business and they will want to do the best they possibly can, but it will always be about getting a young player in, improving them and having a sale and value that is greater when they got them.Other clubs will be in the market to just buy the top talents, irrespective of what age they are, in order to look to win. I think the best clubs must get the balance between both [models]. 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